As a rule, the analysis of experts Saxo Bank is based on a number of relatively simple assumptions: prima, “extended and pretend” – a favorite tool for decision makers and members of central banks, the essence of which – “if in doubt, print money”, in Second, macroeconomic mistakes crowd out favorable conditions in microeconomics (governments and banks need all the money in the system), and thirdly, the source of the debt crisis is the lack of solvency, not liquidity (inability to carry out liquidation in 2008. marked a crisis), and the fourth expectations back to the mean (this is generally applicable in almost 90% of cases).
2012. are more likely to repeat the 2010 e 2011.
As the chief economist at Saxo Bank Steen Jakobsen, on the basis of this simple form of bank experts are skeptical outlook on the future of the stock market. “We recommend the” breve “positions in the indices SPX and STOXX50 from current levels with the” feet “above the recent highs. Reason is so simple that even ashamed 2012. Are more likely to repeat the 2010 and 2011.” – Said the expert.
in the world continue to solve the problem of solvency with liquidity (in Spain, Greece and Portugal) in the absence of any reform (I mean spent), continue to crowd out private capital to state, because banks and governments needed huge financial funds to support the scheme created by them. Macroeconomics is too strong for microeconomics. “Infine, the process returns to the expectations of the mean. You have not forgotten, as chairman of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi less than two months ago, praised itself for long-term refinancing operations?” – Reminds S.Yakobsen.
Such a market, secondo gli esperti, more and more fall under the definition of idiocy, which gave the Albert Einstein: “the repetition of the same experiment, hoping to get a different result.”
specialist recalls how a year ago, Maggio 2, 2011., La S & P 500 rosa, then to fall to a minimum day. That’s when the top was installed 2011. Tuttavia, after reaching a peak followed by a drop of 21% in the period from July to October and then again came to the aid of the Fed and the ECB with its monetary stimulus measures.
split prevents the Fed to play the game “extend and pretend”
FOMC and Bernanke can spend all day in the discussions, but difficult to implement additional easing. This time the difference is that the Committee on Open Market as a whole is becoming more difficult to play the game “and extended pretend” – not because B. Bernanke does not want to, but because in the committee there is a split, and the American the economy is clearly in a better position than in 2010 e 2011., although not significantly falls short of the previous results. In seguito, B. Bernanke have no choice as to do what he does best – make promises.
“He knows and we know that 90% of the impact of quantitative easing to the period prior to the effective implementation of measures, which means that he uses his (from his point of view) a free choice – to pretend that he is can do more. If you look at the projections and the members of the Fed FOMC, although it looks much more bleak, “- says S.Yakobsen.
Proponents of soft policy clearly have an advantage, but everything including the “hawks”, realize that now is the time to wait. In the best case, “Operation Twist” will be extended for a relatively small amount of 400-600 miliardi di dollari, and at worst – the market will remain without delicacy.
Obama will do to reduce unemployment in the U.S. to the Fed forecast at 6,8-7%
“We believe that the chances of further action and strong statements comply with the 60%: 40%, although it is clear that in light of the upcoming November U.S. presidential election Barack Obama would be happy to reduce unemployment. I think he will do this. share of the economically active population is very easy to manage. So expect The Fed forecast for unemployment in the amount of 6,8-7% will be reached “- added S.Yakobsen.
Inoltre, il U.S. economia – is a perfect example of the economy that tends to mean. The lowest level of optimism is replaced by the highest.
Facebook and Apple will determine the direction of the market
Another key factor to determine the direction the market will be the IPO of Facebook. Not only because of the fact that this event is important for long-term prospects for Facebook, but also because of the fact that a successful IPO investment banks and the Fed-dependent increase in the stock markets, you need a successful public offering on the market. It will be successful only if the should be. “I think Rush around Facebook will continue throughout the remaining days. This situation is very similar to the situation in 1999 e 2000.: If investors are eager to acquire Yahoo”, – says the analyst.
second point is Apple. Despite the high quarterly profits, the company’s stock recently closed again in the minimum – a $ 580 on the chart Apple, it seems, looms another peak.
Markets expects a large number of risk events
“The conventional wisdom is that a wide range of risk is the risk event, which is equal to systemic risk and hence reduce the yield. Tuttavia, the concept the relationship of the economy and the stock market is wrong – said S.Yakobsen. – Even more misleading is the assumption that the stock market reflects the true state of the economy. borsa – at best barometer. His ability to predict no better than weather forecasting, cioè, some investors have come to a point, but in most cases no. ”
“I can give you free advice – sell signal: in the words of Alan Greenspan,” very cheap “U.S. stocks may appreciate in the near future. A.Grinspen refers to a small number of people who are predicting even worse than I “- says S.Yakobsen.
Secondo gli esperti, in the near future, besides those already held in the weekend elections in Greece and France are expected to have a potentially risky events: parliamentary elections in France (10 e 17 June), the voteGiugnoGermany in the European mechanism financial stability of the (late June), the visit of the “troika in Greece (June), the EU summit in Copenhagen (June 22, possibly a negative reference and discussion of Spain and Cyprus).
” The large number of risk events increases the risk of unforeseen effects and long-term refinancing operations and the game “extend and pretend” by definition increase the systemic risk, so we expect that the combination of our premises will support only a negative attitude towards the market “- indicates S.Yakobsen.
among positive factors, it is worth noting the influence of a weak labor costs on the economy. “Now we see how personnel costs are putting less of an impact on the economy due to the development of technologies in production. The introduction of printing in 3D and robots really is a solution for Europe, which is burdened with huge costs associated with the implementation of labor and pension obligations. Robots and 3D-printing gives us an excellent opportunity to stop competing for our salaries and to begin to compete for the know-how and innovation, which now abound in the U.S. e Europa, despite the fact that governments levy taxes on private equity, “- says the analyst.
In the next two to three quarters in different areas will be reached “the bottom”
Saxo Bank forecast for the next two to three quarters is that in different areas minimum level is reached: in economic growth, policies and attitudes.
reforms virtually not yet begun. Experts estimate that the UK sold 15% of the austerity measures. A similar pattern is observed in most parts of Southern Europe. ” forecast for the near future looks like the slowdown, increasing deficits, crowding out of capital. Tuttavia, we are approaching the tipping point. As for the allocation of capital in the future is to increase the share of transactions, taking into account the unintended consequences. We recommend the “shackles” on the stock market, come 2075 Euro Stoxx50 a period up to May 18 (displays 4.8 / 5.2 EUR) e “breve” positions on the Australian dollar (growth and slower growth in China). We also believe that it is time to look at the “put” on the NASDAQ, as Apple shows weakness “- the expert added.
Tuttavia, generalmente, to avoid” yaponizatsii “of the economy, or enter into this phase, you will need long-term time, so be S.Yakobsen recommends a portfolio so as to allocate the maximum yield and to protect themselves.
Euro Stoxx 50: 2010., 2011. e 2012. compared
SPX Index: 2010., 2011. e 2012. compared