One of the key themes of the business of the APEC Summit 2012, which opened today in Vladivostok, will transport security. For Russia, this forum of the opportunity to develop a transport corridor for the region. Already, the annual volume of trade between Europe and Asia is estimated at $ 600 billion overwhelming volume of container traffic in these areas is transported by sea on the traditional route, which takes an average of 35-40 days, and it is very long, especially for high-tech goods.
If you create a new transport corridors, will be able to redirect part of a cargo of sea routes to the railways. In this case the delivery can be reduced to 8 days – it is for a period of time block container train can go from the port of East to the border with Finland. Then, according to experts, by 2020 the share of rail transport Europe – Asia will rise to 7.8% of the total traffic, and by 2030 will exceed 10%. At the level of investment in infrastructure corridor of 25-30 billion dollars, the APEC countries by 2020 would save $ 600 billion by reducing the delivery time of cargoes via Russia.
However, at present transport system is inadequate . Officially, there are more than 30 international routes, often poorly connected to each other or overlapping each other. Russian Railways is no exception. “Today, of the 85 thousand km of railways to carry 20 thousand repairs, some of them are in need of modernization” right now “, their margin of safety is fully developed, – said the representative of the IPEM. In this situation, the risk of systemic failure of the railway infrastructure. Individual polygons network will not be able to miss the additional freight traffic from reaching the limit of carrying and traffic capacity. Chances are that by 2020 the rail just take out a significant part for the carriage of goods, thus acting limiter in economic development “.
The government is trying to prevent negative consequences. About a month ago, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev during his visit to the Siberian region announced the government’s decision: railway tariffs in the 2013 index by 7% instead of the previously scheduled to index level of 5.5%. According to Mr. Medvedev, tariffs must ensure breakeven Railways and contribute to the development of rail transport.
However, experts have repeatedly expressed concern that if in 2013-2015 the rate of indexation rate will be set at ” not higher inflation “(or 5.5%), it will lead to the degradation of the rail industry and a shortage of funds not only for investment purposes, but also for the maintenance of operational activities and ensure an adequate level of working capital. The government’s decision takes the edge off the threat, but the level of 7% did not provide the form of the investment component. In such a scenario, it is very important areas will be reduced or removed, noted in the Railways. For example, in the direction from China to expand the “bottlenecks”, it will not be implemented, as well as the development of Moscow and St. Petersburg transport hubs.
According to Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach, the indexation rate of 7% is not avoiding losses 38.6 billion rubles., not to mention the implementation of investment programs. According to Klepach, the need for additional financing amount, plus 30% of the approved investment program for 2012-2015. Recall that the size of the program in the course of discussions with the Government was substantially reduced (up to 341.2 billion rubles. In 2013 and to 367.6 billion rubles. In 2014).
Gears tariff funding could come under the state guarantees loans and bond issues. The state should guarantee foreign loans: in Russia do not provide a “long” money. As for bonds, their issuer receives funding through the issuance, and the object is constructed by him in his concession for a period. Bonds may be redeemed at the VEB means sovereign funds to reduce the “concession” period. Dmitry Medvedev has instructed to study the mechanism of redemption of bonds issued for more than 10-15 years, between 40% to 70% of the programs Railways. Ministry of Economic Development in general agreement with these tools.
According to the Head of the Laboratory of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of Yuri Shcherbanin, increased investment in rail infrastructure is particularly important due to the growing interest of the state and business in Siberia and the Far East. “These regions are the most promising economic and geopolitical terms. They launched major projects for the development of mineral deposits, which implies a more intensive development of infrastructure in these areas than in the whole of the railway network. If transport will be carried out, the Energy Strategy of Russia 2030, which was caused by the growth of the economy as a whole, by 2020 we can expect about 40-50% increase in turnover, the BAM he can grow more than 2.5 times. Additionally, Siberia and the Far East to help Russia’s integration into perspective Pan-Asian market, “said Yu.Scherbanin.
September 7, 2012
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