After a lull
all the attention will be focused on the publication of statistics from the U.S.
Surgutneftegaz sends regular dividends on preferred shares of about 7.1% of the net profit, so it is a significant reduction in negative for the company’s shares, which are attractive to investors relatively high dividend yields of securities of other companies in the sector. My forecast dividend per preferred share is 1.67 rubles., Which implies a dividend yield of 8.6% based on current prices. For comparison, last year the Surgutneftegaz paid by 2.15 rubles. per preferred share, and the yield exceeded 12%. The target price for ordinary shares of 30.63 rubles., Preferred – 18.38 rubles.
Among corporate news that will be of interest to investors today, it is worth noting a few.
Rosneft will issue statements for the first nine months of 2012 according to IFRS. Rising oil prices, coupled with a reduction in export tax will have a positive impact on EBITDA and net profits of oil companies. Negative impact on the financial performance of Rosneft will weaken the ruble. According to my projections, the company’s revenue in the 3rd quarter of 2012 will amount to 732.4 billion rubles., That would be 2% higher revenues in the 2nd quarter. EBITDA increased by 72.4% to 153.4 billion rubles., Rosneft’s net profit will rise to 101.9 billion rubles. In the first nine months of 2012, Rosneft will show revenue growth of 12.3%, to 2.1984 trillion rubles. The company’s EBITDA fell by 18% to 407.4 billion rubles. Net income decreased 24% compared to the same period in 2011 and reach 205.9 billion rubles. Rosneft improvement in the 3rd quarter of 2012 compared to the second quarter may have a moderate positive impact on its shares. The target price is 288 rubles.
possible that Sistema place in London recently repurchased under buyback of paper. However, in the present moment and the shares and GDRs are traded systems near its lows, so the share offering can not be successful. Rather, funds are raised for further mergers and acquisitions. You can also assume that the additional issue can be placed to stabilize the liquidity system, which may be forced, as a guarantor, to repay their debts “daughter» – SSTL. Considering not a very large amount of additional issue, we expect a neutral market reaction to its approval. Price target on shares of Sistema – 33.81 rubles., However, in spite of the significant growth potential, while it is better to sell the paper to resolve the situation with licenses SSTL in India.
Today, November 1, will be very interesting in terms of the release of macroeconomic statistics, which can have a significant impact on world markets. Let me remind you that the hurricane “Sandy” in the U.S. amended the schedule published in the U.S. macro data. In particular, scheduled for Wednesday output indicator ADP employment for October will be released today. The consensus forecast for this indicator is 135 thousand, while a month earlier it was at 162 thousand will come out and other data from the U.S. labor market. So, will be published of the volumes of initial claims for benefits for the unemployed, and the number of people already receiving it. I recall that in September, the unemployment rate in the U.S. has decreased markedly to a level of 7.8%, and a further significant improvement in the job market is not expected.
in the U.S. will also be published a series of data which will shed light on consumer demand in the world’s largest economy. This is the index of consumer confidence, which is expected to have grown from 70.3 points to 72.5 points in October, as well as data on sales of passenger transport and an index of comparable sales in retail outlets. The improvement of these indicators could be an indirect confirmation of the effectiveness of another round of quantitative easing and provide substantial support for the stock market.
will be released and the data on stocks of gasoline and distillates from the EIA. Distillate stocks are expected to decline and a slight increase in gasoline stocks. Decline in oil prices during the hurricane in the United States, which took place against the background of reduced demand for raw materials must come to naught, as the residents of one of the most populous U.S. territories will be returned to normal. Brent is a slight increase was observed yesterday. Morning, November 1, Brent reduced price of $ 107.4 per barrel.
As of 8:00 Asian markets show moderate growth after the publication of the fact that industrial production in China rose for the first time three months. Japanese Nikkei gaining 0,36%, Hang Seng in Hong Kong is growing by 0.6%, while China’s Shanghai Composite – on 1,77%. Futures on the S & P down 0.25%. Market sentiment from Investkafe – “neutral” score of 4.5.
Apparently, Russian trading floors expects the decline at the open. During the day, all the attention will be paid to the statistics coming out, which can give rise to growth stocks.